It seems incredible now we look back on it, but 2008 started in a fairly ordinary way. The Foreman spent his time trying to work out what the car companies would do next. By the year’s end, it was all about working out which one of them would survive.
The year began, as 2007 had closed, with the industry furiously trying to look like it was doing the right thing by CO2. Honda’s plan for hundreds of thousands of new hybrids emerged, and the Germans and French also worked furiously on full and mild hybrids. The Tesla was the poster-child for those of us who hope we can go green without being utterly miserable, but for most of the year it was infuriatingly delayed.
Trouble was, with every new technology that improved consumption, the carmakers would launch another new bulky, heavy car. At the Geneva Show in March, I counted 13 new crossover 4x4s. Now if you imagine every crossover buyer has come out of a heavyweight traditional 4×4, then I guess they do reduce fuel use. But if the crossovers are sold to people who formerly had a car (as they must be because there aren’t enough trad 4×4 owners to go around) then they’re an environmental catastrophe.
Talking of SUVs, Land Rover together with Jaguar was sold to Tata. I did wonder (still do) how, without the facility to share with Ford, they’d pay for the environmental technologies that they’d inevitably need in the coming years. But the Indians looked rich, and they looked like the best buyer at the time.
And of course we all got frothed up about the our favourite madly expensive cars. I remember Rolls-Royce launching the £300,000 Phantom Coupe in June. No-one really spoke about the coming financial crash. Because even then, no-one really saw it coming. Even as late as August, when I first drove GM’s fabulous extravagance, the Corvette ZR1, there wasn’t too much of a smell of irony.
The crash was something for the banks alone to worry about, wasn’t it? Er, no it wasn’t, as it turned out. By September, everyone could see the credit crunch meant buyers wouldn’t be able to borrow to get new cars. But most carmakers thought they could ride the storm without major cutbacks to their future plans.
By October though, it was clear some of car companies themselves (GM especially) would find it hard to get the money to keep operating at all.
And by November we could all see this was a giant global collapse in demand, and no-one was immune. Car companies make a profit only when their factories are going flat out. When demand falls, the losses are instant and huge.
I’ve written enough in this blog before about Detroit going to Washington, cap in hand, so I won’t remind you here. But to prove it’s a global matter, remember Toyota will lose money this year for the first time ever.
I’d say it’s likely Chrysler is in the death throes. Fiat’s boss has talked in general terms about mergers. BMW has cut new models, including the CS. Honda pulled out of F1 and cancelled the NSX replacement. Subaru withdrew from rallying. Many manufacturers can’t lose shifts or close factories fast enough to keep up with the fall in demand.
Things are dropping faster and further than anyone imagined even weeks ago. And the scary bit is, no-one can see the bottom.
These days, no-one talks about green issues any more. Small cars are doing OK only because they’re cheap, not because they’re green. The first half of 2008 seems such a distant memory now.
My personal symbolic memory of the year? In August I travelled to drive the Corvette ZR1 on GM’s poshest corporate jet (it had several, and this one really was a humdinger, a $60m Gulfstream 550 I think). We landed at GM’s private terminal at Detroit International Airport.
GM is now closing the terminal and stopping the jets, partly because of the famous PR blunder sending its executives to Washington on a begging mission in a Gulfstream. I wonder if boss Rick Wagoner will ever get to fly again on that plane he once so generously shared with the likes of me.
once again a awesome blog, as they have been all year, thanks Phil for sharing your expert knowledge
Just a thought, but what about the Government next year making registrations special all year by say :
2009 ABC
Purchasers being able to choose their own letters on a first come bases and only being transferable to new cars? It would not cost them anything and may just generate some sales?
When all is said and done,we may have all been witness to the beginning of the end for a lot of the worlds major car companies, the thing to remember is that the names will live on and can be revived at a later date. The green thing is just smoke and mirrors for taxation and control by the Governments.Nothing to do with saving Polar bears, or the planet for that matter.Cad likes to be a bit controversial(most say ignorant) not many people know this, certainly not the follow the flock green sheep, but the world climate has always been in a state of flux, and always will be, it just comes as a nasty shock when you live through such events. who did the cave dwellers put the blame on for the last ice age? Sorry wandered off the thread.
Paul thanks for your informative journalism over the past 12 months, sort of balances out the 3 buffoon’s and Tom Ford, just hope you have some positive stories for us in 2009. PS ZR1 is it really that good, have a Charcoal grey on order.
We may all be in for some hard times. When you look at the possibility of major car manufacturers failing, it becomes apparent that government legislation regarding safety and emissions may have to be lowered in the US. Making cars dirtier and more dangerous, unfortunately may end up being the only way new, small manufacturers could start to become competitive.
Thanks, Paul, your blog has been the best on this site since the new site opened, both for informative writing and comments.
@ Jim B – that reg system couldn’t work, because there are only 17576 combinations per year. The current system has that per region (NA, LN, etc.), per 6 months.
@ English Cad – Although the climate does have natural fluctuation, it has nowhere near as much change as what is happening now. We should be getting colder now, but due to our damage on the Earth already, the next ice age, which should have been now-ish, has been averted. Although most of your offerings on this blog have been useful, your view on climate change is incorrect. I’m not a tree hugger myself, but denying climate change isn’t going to help anyone.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I HOPE YOU LIKE GAY FOREVER HAMMOND!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MY FRIEND LIKE MUSTANG. BUT, EVERYTIME IN GAME HE CANNOT WIN WITH ME(IN UNDERGROUND NEED FOR SPEED 2004).I CANNOT AGGREE MUSTANG IN GAME.I HOPE MUSTANG BANCRUPT AGAIN-AGAIN-AGAIN (FOREVER).!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FROM:MUHD RIDHWAN
TO:EVERYBODY TO SEE THIS!!
CALL ME AT 017-PUSH-PUSH CANNOT CALL!!!
FOR HOST TOP GEAR.YOU IS BAD GUYS.
Hi Jeremy,
A point to clear. Toyota saying they will report the first spreadsheet loss in their history, one billion dollars. But… numbers people think differently to us mortals with five-bob in our pockets; Do Toyota mean they will make no profit at all, or that the 6 billion they had planned on will only be a mere (sob…) five?
No profit at all, and in debt to another billion on top means they are selling no cars at all.
But they are.
I think they are trying a flier and conning their government into giving them a billion or two… for free.
Remember, Toyota was started by a mobster, and was built up on mob-tactics. It is logical the mob is still behind them.
Shame, for they make nice cars. I’d buy a Yaris if I had the money.
Maybe for the shite episode you could do funny outakes from the other shows
Maybe for ‘Episode 13′ just muck about, like
‘Who can do the worst/best job modifing a £500 Saxo’ and getting lots of cheap (crap) cars and having a race with stuff blowing up and cars upside down and LOTS OF CARAVANS BEING DESTROYED and a HUGE explosion destroying ALL the cheap(crap)cars and debris, and carnage everywhere. And all for £1000 to £2000 quid!
This year I discovered top gear and THANK GOD I did. Summing up this year in the car world.
Crazy
used are better than new
if all the new cars are designed 10 years ahead of time then toride with the times we need a used 10 year old car .
my xk8 is better than the latest new one
the same goes with the show ?will everyone be smashing up their cars because they cant pay for them!or can the show be as good as the older ones
Over Yule, I remember reading about the credit crunch and optimism being the only remedy in these miserable times.
So why doesn’t everyone look on the bright side? The news media has been harping on about the excessive level of house prices in recent years, pricing buyers out of the market. Yet now all they’re going on about is the ‘devastating’ drop in these same houses. It’s terrible isn’t it, bad when they’re up, bad when they’re down. So, if the Capitalist system continues to plummet in freefall, and no cars are being sold, then that means cars will get cheaper. If uncontrolled, so cheap that they would be practically worthless. But that won’t happen because Mr Capitalist upholder of the system, a.k.a enforcer of the status quo and promulgator of the demeritocracy, would rather burn them than have the masses get their grubby hands on them without paying their extortions. In fact, they will probably stockpile them, as they do now, but to cope with the excess will simply increase the size of the vast ex-airfields, yards and warehouses used for this purpose. I forgot to mention forecourts. But I digress. Returning to the theme of the blog and the solution to the concerned Capitalist’s credit crunch extravaganza, I chanced upon the following article in a magazine called Wreeder’s Digest, page 9, November 2008. It was deemed so good that it received a prize of £50 and was commended as a ‘star letter’. In more prosperous times I would have belly-laughed at it upon reading, but now it seems less funny as this is probably the shape of things to come. Needless to say the respondent is down as from Edinburgh. Without any doctoring, here it is in its entirety:
‘I enjoyed “Reduce Your Carbon Tyreprint” as I’ve just swapped a 1.6-litre gas guzzler for a 800cc Daewoo Matiz. It only uses half the petrol, saving me £20 a week, and also reduces my tax and insurance costs. And for those who think the engine is powerless, it easily does 70mph on the motorway and can even carry four people up a steep hill. It’s my best move all year-I’m saving a fortune.’
Got to be a p***take, surely?
Hello Otus (15). I did write in my Top Gear Magazine column earlier in the year that the fall in house prices is a good thing…
how to have fun in an xk8
in manal gears when over 20mph the cruise control + button works which holds the revs until you change gear.
so acceleate press +
change gear press + acelerate gear press + select 4th press + acelerate gear press +
select 5th press + acelerate gear press +
no you should be in 6th gear dont worry if your in 5th as 1st and 2nt are together
to brake under pressure press limiter button this takes of cruise contol press
+ button your speed comes up on sceen
cancel as you brake press
+ button your new speed comes up on sceen
during this time the car calcualtes your braking demands . to make the mph disappear
with the feeling of togetherness and harmouny
you may not have finished yet so cancel that speed brake some more press
+ button to show new speed this should be ok so press cancel using limiter button next to sport button or actually while your there press the sport and move gear to (12) or 3 when up the gear press + cruse contol button this holds the revs as you change to next gear.dont forget when the car changes gear to press the + button again and before changing to the next gear
tips from jaguarjames, back sat evening.
i know i can have fun in my car as its got back seats
yea
well
@ jaguar james (17)
If this is a feature of that car, wouldn’t it be described in the manual? In more understandable terms? And with some useful interpunction maybe?
the cruise control holds the speed and revs also takes of the traction control .
i discovered the car can move though the gears with hardly an movement of your right foot when reseting the + cruise contol between gears .
as a lot of supercar owners will tell you
you need to go on a course before you buy one
i so wanted the hamster to win the polar challenge.the only reason j.c. and may won was because of the gin and tonic and the spam.the companies gave them money and a extra team to dig them out and drive whie they slept.to advertise their products. do the beeb know this? i think not. go hamster go hamster.
New cars with a fob are not as good
–xk v8 car detects a warm key from my pocket& starts with a rumble from the v8 . My wifes key i cooler kept in her handbag 1of20 and starts as if there are kids in the back in safty mode
Interesting thing about American cars… a friend of mine from Japan is working over here (America) for 6 months, meaning she gets a different rental car each month.
She got a couple Hondas and a Toyota, so she wants an American car so she can try something new, and got a Mustang.
Wow. What a POS. You have air conditioning, a CHEAP radio, and… THAT’S IT. It doesn’t even have a remote keyfob, and not even a light in the trunk.
She’s not impressed at all, and neither am I.
im looking for a new car but i only have £20
any suggestions?
i’m rufus i come from italia
i ame good they we programs becose not did look in tv the seat leon cupra new is good car
No one talks about green cars any more? i think that cars must get cheaper to meet customers’ pockets as well as get greener to met new standards of Euro IV. So, this is a bright point out of a dark next year, as some expert predict, right? I’m waiting to get my own car.
I’m from Vietnam, where cars are much more expensive than other countries, as you’ve experienced, haha.
Rufus why the hell do you like seat??? Do you not have any standards with cars?? It might run good but i can guarantee that girls will not look twice at that car. If you want a decent, sensible car you want a Volvo XC90
I want Mustang GTR.I can buy more than $10
I hope Mustang (Ford) bancrupt forever!!!!!!!!!
Lamborghini is the besttttttttt!!!!!!
BUY EVERYTHING CAR EXCEPT MUSTANG!!!
TO HAMMOND(GAY FOREVER)
I LOVE TOP GEAR
LIVE FOREVER TOP GEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!
HELLO HAMMOND!!!!!!!!!!!!
OPEN THE HISTORY SUBARU IMPREZA
I wish car manufacturers would go back to the basics. I still love my `96 Corolla.
Paul, do you have any predictions for 2009?
Who will take over Honda’s F1 team and will they bother doing the WRC at all?
Will government actually introduce electric facilities and hydrogen stations so we can all start buying FCXs (when they start mass producing them.
vietnam has 1019 comments so relay on its a wipe out,
dear Gemma f have yuo anchor to test the seat leon cupra new. i have to test the new volvo and not plausur
WRC will go ahead, Subaru didn’t have a competitive car so I can’t see it damaging the series massively. The Impreza will still be massively popular at the grass roots level of the sport, as well as in the hands of privateer teams. It’s a lot of car for the money and easily upgraded whereas the citroens and fords are works specials and you couldn’t buy one without a major deal.
finished in the cup holder check out coments
Hello people
I havent bothered reading the essay about the motorworld problems posted by the guy who started the blog, but I cant find where to post to Top Gear. I have an idea; but it may have some problems. The Top Gear presenters have not done their own laps in the Chevrolet Lacetti to put their names on the Reasonably Priced Car lap board; why havent they? It would make for a great episode. Just an idea. Anyway, the motorworld is going down. Lets just hope the supercars and the British manafacturers keep going! Then, in twenty years, everyone will be driving a Koenigsegg or a Land Rover to get some milk from the shops!
I thought Scooby dropped out of the WRC because its cars were not able to meet the s2000 standards b/c of its transmission or something.
if i were ronaldo id have the written off 599gtb crushed to the size of a match box to go on the mantle place